Growth plan for MOSH, 6 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Mosh already has 1000+ certified reviews and a 30-day money back guarantee. This plan turns that proof into creator-led ads, spends $24,000 on tests first, and treats $47.04 as the one number to protect while the $100,000 budget is allocated.
- Target CAC
- $47.04
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: $47.04 CAC on a Mosh first order
The number is target CAC: $47.04. It is 0.6 of the $78.40 ceiling, which comes from a $98 average order, a 40% margin and one repeat order. Everything I do on Mosh serves that line: spend moves up only while the first order stays under it.
Protect
Target CAC: $47.04 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $98 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $78.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $78.40 = $47.04. Across the ranges: $39.38 to $162.00.
Three moves
- Kill losing ads early so test spend stays inside the $3,000 first-week budget.
- Hold one variable per test so a winner can be repeated, not guessed.
- Move budget to winners only while CAC stays under $47.04.
- certified reviews on the Mosh site
- 1000+
- Published
- customers, as the Mosh site words it
- 50,000+
- Published
- starting price, listed as From $75
- $75
- Published
02 Variety
Skincare, hair loss, ED: each Mosh ad carries one reason
Every ad concept has to carry one reason to try Mosh: a product like Nightly Defense Cream, a guarantee, or the discreet, 100% online consult. Each test changes one variable, so a loser tells us which part failed.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Personalised, all online | Personalised clinical treatments. All online. | 5 |
| Discreet delivery | Free, discreet shipping | 3 |
| Aussie doctors | Aussie doctors are here to help | 3 |
| Trusted by Aussies | Trusted by over 150,000 Aussies | 2 |
| Money-back guarantee | We’re committed to your success, with a 30-day money-back guarantee (T&Cs apply). | 2 |
| Certified reviews | 1000+ certified reviews | 2 |
| Clear starting price | Treatments start from $120 for 3-months supply of product. | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, from health claims to two guarantee windows
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Creator videos drift past Mosh's own wording on health results | High | High | Both | Every video checked against the claims sheet before posting; any miss is pulled the same day. |
| Results take 3-6 months, so first-order payback is slow | Med | High | Me | Cohort payback reviewed monthly; a concept stops if CAC stays above $47.04 after its test spend. |
| Two guarantee windows, 30-day and 180-Day, blur the ad promise | Med | Med | Your team | One approved guarantee line sits in the claims sheet before any week one ad goes live. |
| Customer counts differ on the site: 50,000+ and 75,000+ | Med | Low | Your team | One count approved by your team before it appears in any ad. |
| Creators don't land, so fewer than 10 are live by week six | Med | High | Me | Two creators signed each week; if week two has fewer than 2 live, the ad ramp pauses. |
| Tracking can't separate consult starts from paid first orders | Med | High | Your team | Event spec agreed and tested before week one spend passes $3,000. |
| Hit rate is lower than assumed, so winners arrive late | Med | High | Me | By the first gate at least one concept holds under $47.04, or new tests replace the weakest. |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The ceiling is $78.40, the guard line $47.04, on a $98 order
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $98 (range $75.00–$120.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $78.40 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $47.04 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $98 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $78.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $78.40 = $47.04. Across the ranges: $39.38 to $162.00.
Range across the assumptions: $39 to $162.
The $98 order, 40% margin and one repeat order are my guesses; the site gives no order value. The $78.40 ceiling and $47.04 guard line hold until week one swaps in your real numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks and $24,000 of tests before anything scales
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $47 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $47 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $47 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $47 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $47 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $47 |
Week 1 and week 2 run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12–20 ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000, and losers are killed early.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More concepts, more winners: 80 concepts add $72,000
Creative volume moves CAC because winners are rare. Hit rate and spend per winner are assumptions: 20 concepts give 2 winners and $18,000 added; 80 concepts give 8 winners and $72,000 added. More tests find more winners that can hold $47.04.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
$100,000 is split so winners get fed and losers stop
- Creative tests, the $24,000 ramp
- $24,000
- 24%
- Scaling winners that hold $47.04
- $56,000
- 56%
- Creator pay and video production
- $12,000
- 12%
- Landing pages and reporting tools
- $8,000
- 8%
Tests take $24,000 of the $100,000; the rest waits until a concept holds $47.04.
The math. 24% × $100,000 = $24,000; 56% × $100,000 = $56,000; 12% × $100,000 = $12,000; 8% × $100,000 = $8,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first; other channels open only when Meta proves out
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week 1, with 12 ads at $250 each | Creator videos and hook tests show fast what moves a first order. |
| TikTok | After Meta shows hooks that hold $47.04 | Videos made for Meta can be reused; a hairline-over-months story suits short video. |
| YouTube Shorts | After TikTok holds target CAC | Same vertical cuts, with a longer shelf life for results-timeline stories. |
| Google search | When creator ads lift branded demand | Hair loss and sexual health are Mosh's own categories; searches catch men already looking. |
| Email and SMS | Once first orders arrive | Automatic refills every 3 months if eligible gives a repeat-order lever. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
At an $85 CAC a Mosh order never pays back, so we stop
Payback is the real constraint because the ceiling assumes one repeat order. At a $25 CAC the first order pays back, with $53.40 left. At $45 it needs repeat orders, with $33.40 left. At $85 it never pays back and we stop; at $110 we stop too.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $39.20, $78.40.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | $39.20 | $78.40 | $53.40 | First order |
| $45 | $39.20 | $78.40 | $33.40 | After repeat orders |
| $85 | $39.20 | $78.40 | −$6.60 | Never: stop |
| $110 | $39.20 | $78.40 | −$31.60 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $25: $78.40 − $25 = $53.40 left; pays back: First order; CAC $45: $78.40 − $45 = $33.40 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $85: $78.40 − $85 = −$6.60 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $110: $78.40 − $110 = −$31.60 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Ads and creators are covered; clinic, tracking build are not
Covers
- Meta ad testing, the hook library and weekly experiments
- Creator sourcing, briefs and the claims sheet
- Landing page tests for skincare, hair loss and the online consult
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Clinical decisions, prescriptions or practitioner scripts
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team builds it
- Health claims beyond Mosh's own wording
- Mosh's pricing, guarantees or product range
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | At least 12 new ads tested, the first 2 creators posting, and CAC read daily. | No creator live, or tracking not firing on consult and order events. |
| Day 30 | At least one concept holding first-order CAC under $47.04. | Every concept above $78.40 after its test spend. |
| Day 60 | Winners are scaling and blended CAC is still under $47.04. | CAC above $78.40 for two straight weeks. |
| Day 90 | Cohort payback follows the PLAN rule, with repeat orders covering any gap. | Payback never reached at the current CAC. |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Results timelines like 3-6 months and two guarantees | One approved sheet for creators | 1st |
| creators | 50,000+ customers and 1000+ certified reviews to mine | Creators briefed on hair loss and skincare | 2nd |
| creative | Nightly Defense Cream from 75.00 AUD | Creator-led video ads and a hook library | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Skin treatments from 120.00 AUD, 3-month supply | A page matched to each ad concept | 2nd |
| reporting | A 30-day money back guarantee to track refunds | Daily CAC and cohort payback view | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 1000+ certified reviews on the Mosh site | https://www.getmosh.com.au/our-therapists | Fact |
| 50,000+ customers, as the Mosh site words it | https://www.getmosh.com.au/weight-loss/how-and-why-to-lose-belly-fat | Fact |
| $75 starting price, listed as From $75 | https://www.getmosh.com.au/skin | Fact |
| Product prices $75.00–$120.00 | product prices in the site product data (2 products), read 2026-10-06 | Fact |
| $98 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $47.04 target CAC | 0.6 of the $78.40 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $78.40 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 24% / 56% / 12% / 8% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I agree the claims sheet with your team, brief the first two creators, and launch 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 for the week. Daily CAC against $47.04 starts on day one.